US–Iran Interim Ceasefire — Formal Expiry This Week
The interim ceasefire agreement is set to formally lapse this week, with negotiations over ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked. Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged “unprecedented economic measures” against Iran alongside the continued naval blockade, with further announcements expected in the coming days this is the single largest swing factor for oil and, by extension, gold this week.
Bullish (gold/oil): the ceasefire lapses without renewal, fresh measures escalate tensions
Bearish (gold/oil): a last-minute extension or breakthrough in Iran-Oman talks
FOMC Minutes — Wednesday, August 19
Minutes from the July 28–29 meeting, which held rates steady amid a historic three-way hawkish dissent, are due this Wednesday. With the labour market data since then having shifted sharply dovish, markets will parse the minutes for how seriously the Committee weighed downside risks even before the July jobs report landed.
Bullish (metals): minutes reveal broader concern about labour-market softening
Bearish (metals): minutes emphasize inflation risk and validate the hawkish dissenters
Jackson Hole Symposium — Fed Chair Warsh’s Speech
With Warsh having already signalled that a rate hike may not be the preferred tool to fight energy-driven inflation, his remarks at this year’s Jackson Hole symposium are shaping up as the single most important piece of forward guidance investors will get before the September meeting.
Bullish (metals): Warsh reiterates caution on hiking into elevated oil prices
Bearish (metals): Warsh signals renewed openness to a September hike
China’s Refined Copper Output & Codelco Guidance
With Chinese refined output on track for a second straight monthly decline and Codelco flagging its own 2026 production shortfall, confirmation or further deterioration in either data point will determine whether copper’s move into record territory has further room to run.
Bullish (copper): both supply constraints deepen further
Bearish (copper): Chinese smelters restore feedstock access or Codelco guidance stabilizes
Empire State Manufacturing & NAHB Housing Data
Early-week regional and housing data will offer another read on whether the softness seen in July’s retail sales and consumer sentiment is broadening into other corners of the economy, ahead of the more consequential Fed events later in the week.
Bullish (metals): data confirms broader softening, reinforcing the dovish Fed case
Bearish (metals): data surprises to the upside, complicating the soft-landing narrative
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All prices are approximate and subject to market conditions. · Pan Asia Market Intelligence · 17 August 2026