Payrolls Miss Flips the Script — Warsh’s Hawkish Pivot Meets Its First Real Test
GOLD · ~$4,100–4,190/oz — A Payroll Miss Undoes Warsh’s Hawkish Debut WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has staged a sharp V-shaped reversal, rallying nearly 4% off an eight-month low near $4,000–4,018 hit on June 30–July 1, to reclaim the $4,170–4,190 zone by July 3. The move was triggered almost entirely by Friday’s June jobs report, which landed far below expectations and […]
MACRO · EVENT WATCH — KEY CATALYSTS AHEAD
Geopolitical tensions and upcoming US economic data are set to shape the precious metals market in the coming weeks. Ongoing US–Iran uranium negotiations remain deadlocked, while Fed speeches ahead of the June FOMC blackout period could significantly influence interest rate expectations. Key indicators including JOLTS, ISM Services PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls, and upcoming CPI data will determine whether markets lean toward higher-for-longer rates or potential cuts. Oil price volatility tied to the Iran conflict also adds inflation pressure, making the outlook for gold, silver, copper, and platinum highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and US macroeconomic signals.
Iran Deal Hopes Fade, Treasury Yields Spike — Metals Retreat from May Highs
MACRO SNAPSHOT. GOLD (SPOT) ~$4,500–4,540/oz Iran deal hopes fade. SILVER (SPOT) ~$73–75/oz Sold off from $87 peak. COPPER (COMEX) ~$6.10–6.23/lb China demand concern. PLATINUM ~$1,970–1,985/oz Fourth year deficit. US 10Y YIELD ~4.59–4.65% Highest since Feb 2025. OIL (BRENT) ~$99–109/bbl Hormuz partial blockade
PLATINUM – $2,100 Under Test — Still Waiting for an Independent Catalyst
PLATINUM · ~$1,900–2,000/oz. Platinum has edged higher to $1,900–$2,000/oz, approaching the $2,100 psychological resistance zone. Progress remains gradual, and volatility is the lowest of the four metals at ~1.7–2.1% daily making it the most manageable from a risk perspective.
COPPER – AI Demand & China Flows Keep Copper Supported Above Breakout Zone
COPPER · ~$6.18–6.24/lb. Copper is holding at $6.18–$6.24/lb, sustaining its position above the breakout zone despite momentum moderating after the recent sharp rally. This is normal post-breakout behavior the market is digesting gains, not distributing. Bullish positioning remains intact.
SILVER – $87 Tested — Volatility Trap or Real Breakout
SILVER · ~$76–77/oz. Silver is trading around $76–$77/oz, extending to its highest level in over a year. Price action remains in a highvolatility bullish structure, with intraday swings running 2.5–3.2% wide enough to hit stop-losses even when directional bias is correct.
GOLD – Inflation Floor vs. Rate Ceiling — Gold Plays Defense
GOLD · ~$4,470–4,630/oz. Gold is currently trading around $4,470–$4,630/oz, entering a high-level consolidation phase following the hotterthan-expected April CPI print. Price action suggests the market is defending territory rather than advancing downside is limited, but upside conviction has not yet formed.