Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (31 August – 4 September)

Iran-Jordan Military Exchange — Does It End Here, or Escalate Further? This weekend’s exchange US strikes on Larak Island followed by Iranian missile strikes on two Jordanian air bases hosting US forces was the first direct US-Iran military confrontation since late July. Whether Tehran considers its retaliation complete (“Punishment of the Aggressor,” as the IRGC […]

Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (17–21 August)

US–Iran Interim Ceasefire — Formal Expiry This Week The interim ceasefire agreement is set to formally lapse this week, with negotiations over ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked. Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged “unprecedented economic measures” against Iran alongside the continued naval blockade, with further announcements expected in the coming […]

Ceasefire Expires, Copper Hits Records, and the Fed Goes Quiet Before Jackson Hole

GOLD · ~$4,370–4,440/oz “A Second Straight Weekly Gain, Just as the Iran Ceasefire Hits Its Deadline” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold opened the week firmly, extending the rally built since early August with a 2.4% weekly gain at Monday’s open and trading as high as $4,420–4,440 in early Asian hours before easing slightly. The metal is now up more than […]

Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (10–14 August)

July CPI — The Next Test of Whether the Dovish Repricing Holds With September hike odds already cut from 58% to roughly 42% on the payrolls miss, this week’s CPI print becomes the swing factor for whether that repricing extends or reverses. Per an FT report, Fed Chair Warsh remains prepared to raise rates in […]

A Payrolls Shock Overrides the Hawks — Metals Surge Together as Hormuz Talks Stay Stuck

GOLD · ~$4,300–4,365/oz “A Payrolls Contraction Undoes the Fed’s Hawkish Dissent in a Single Session” WHAT HAPPENED. Gold has rallied sharply off its early-August base near $4,050, hitting a seven-week high above $4,360 and posting its best weekly gain since January. The move was triggered almost entirely by Friday, August 7’s July jobs report, which arrived far […]

Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (3–7 August)

July Jobs Report — Friday, August 7 The Week’s Marquee Data Point With the Fed’s decision already split 9-3 and September genuinely “live,” Friday’s jobs report becomes the single most important data point standing between now and the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. A soft print would embolden the dovish majority; a strong one would […]

Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (27–31 July)

FOMC Decision — Wednesday, July 29 The Marquee Event of the Week With rate-hike odds for this meeting having swung from under 12% to as high as ~38–40% and back to roughly one-in-three within a matter of days, and September odds still priced near 80%, this is one of the most genuinely uncertain Fed meetings […]