{"id":357,"date":"2026-07-28T10:50:49","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T03:50:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panasia.id\/?p=357"},"modified":"2026-08-19T15:01:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T08:01:48","slug":"macro-%c2%b7-event-watch-key-catalysts-ahead-27-31-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/market-insight\/what-to-watch\/macro-%c2%b7-event-watch-key-catalysts-ahead-27-31-july\/","title":{"rendered":"Macro \u00b7 Event Watch \u2014 Key Catalysts Ahead (27\u201331 July)"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Decision \u2014 Wednesday, July 29 The Marquee Event of the Week<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

With rate-hike odds for this meeting having swung from under 12% to as high as ~38\u201340% and back to roughly one-in-three within a matter of days, and September odds still priced near 80%, this is one of the most genuinely uncertain Fed meetings in years. Chair Warsh has eliminated forward guidance entirely, meaning the ~130-word statement itself not a press-conference tone will carry the market’s full attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n

Bullish (metals): <\/strong>no hike, statement stays non-committal on September<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish (metals):<\/strong> a surprise hike, or language that locks in a September move<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Hormuz \/ Red Sea Truce \u2014 Does It Hold Through the Week?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

The pause that began late Friday, July 24 was reached without a formal announcement, and Oman-mediated talks over Hormuz shipping remain in early stages. Houthi forces have continued claiming attacks on Saudi Aramco-linked Red Sea facilities even after the pause began, underscoring how fragile the de-escalation still is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n

Bullish (gold\/oil):<\/strong> fresh strikes or Houthi attacks resume<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish (gold\/oil):<\/strong> Oman talks progress toward a durable Hormuz arrangement<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Advance Q2 GDP & Core PCE Inflation<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Due later this week alongside the FOMC decision, advance Q2 GDP and the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation gauge will be read directly against Warsh’s silence with no forward guidance to lean on, these prints may do more to shape September rate expectations than the FOMC statement itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n

Bullish (metals): <\/strong>soft GDP\/PCE reinforces a pause into September<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish (metals):<\/strong> hot prints validate the market’s elevated September-hike pricing<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Chile Storm Damage & China Copper Scrap Crackdown Follow-Through<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Confirmation of actual output impact from Chile’s storms, and whether China’s VAT-fraud crackdown on copper scrap proves a lasting supply constraint or a temporary distortion, will determine whether copper’s recent spike toward $6.55 has further legs or fades back into its prior range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n

Bullish (copper): <\/strong>Chile disruptions confirmed, scrap crackdown persists<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish (copper): <\/strong>both prove transient, easing the recent premium<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Big Tech Earnings & Broader Risk Appetite<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

A heavy week of major US corporate earnings lands alongside the FOMC decision, adding a second source of cross-asset volatility. Weak guidance or a risk-off equity reaction could compound any hawkish surprise from the Fed, while strong results could help offset it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n

Bullish (metals): <\/strong>weak earnings reinforce a risk-off, safe-haven bid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish (metals):<\/strong> strong earnings support risk appetite, reducing the safe-haven bid<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All prices are approximate and subject to market conditions. \u00b7 Pan Asia Market Intelligence \u00b7 27 July 2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FOMC Decision \u2014 Wednesday, July 29 The Marquee Event of the Week With rate-hike odds for this meeting having swung from under 12% to as high as ~38\u201340% and back to roughly one-in-three within a matter of days, and September odds still priced near 80%, this is one of the most genuinely uncertain Fed meetings […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-to-watch"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}