Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (31 August – 4 September)
Iran-Jordan Military Exchange — Does It End Here, or Escalate Further? This weekend’s exchange US strikes on Larak Island followed by Iranian missile strikes on two Jordanian air bases hosting US forces was the first direct US-Iran military confrontation since late July. Whether Tehran considers its retaliation complete (“Punishment of the Aggressor,” as the IRGC […]
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (17–21 August)
US–Iran Interim Ceasefire — Formal Expiry This Week The interim ceasefire agreement is set to formally lapse this week, with negotiations over ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked. Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged “unprecedented economic measures” against Iran alongside the continued naval blockade, with further announcements expected in the coming […]
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (10–14 August)
July CPI — The Next Test of Whether the Dovish Repricing Holds With September hike odds already cut from 58% to roughly 42% on the payrolls miss, this week’s CPI print becomes the swing factor for whether that repricing extends or reverses. Per an FT report, Fed Chair Warsh remains prepared to raise rates in […]
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (3–7 August)
July Jobs Report — Friday, August 7 The Week’s Marquee Data Point With the Fed’s decision already split 9-3 and September genuinely “live,” Friday’s jobs report becomes the single most important data point standing between now and the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. A soft print would embolden the dovish majority; a strong one would […]
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (27–31 July)
FOMC Decision — Wednesday, July 29 The Marquee Event of the Week With rate-hike odds for this meeting having swung from under 12% to as high as ~38–40% and back to roughly one-in-three within a matter of days, and September odds still priced near 80%, this is one of the most genuinely uncertain Fed meetings […]
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (20–24 July)
Strait of Hormuz — De-escalation or Further Escalation This is the dominant swing factor for the week. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority continues to assert control over transit routes, and traffic through the Strait has collapsed to a handful of vessels a day. Any sign of a fresh ceasefire, or conversely of the conflict spreading […]
MACRO · EVENT WATCH — KEY CATALYSTS AHEAD
Geopolitical tensions and upcoming US economic data are set to shape the precious metals market in the coming weeks. Ongoing US–Iran uranium negotiations remain deadlocked, while Fed speeches ahead of the June FOMC blackout period could significantly influence interest rate expectations. Key indicators including JOLTS, ISM Services PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls, and upcoming CPI data will determine whether markets lean toward higher-for-longer rates or potential cuts. Oil price volatility tied to the Iran conflict also adds inflation pressure, making the outlook for gold, silver, copper, and platinum highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and US macroeconomic signals.