Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (31 August – 4 September)
Iran-Jordan Military Exchange — Does It End Here, or Escalate Further? This weekend’s exchange US strikes on Larak Island followed by Iranian missile strikes on two Jordanian air bases hosting US forces was the first direct US-Iran military confrontation since late July. Whether Tehran considers its retaliation complete (“Punishment of the Aggressor,” as the IRGC […]
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (17–21 August)
US–Iran Interim Ceasefire — Formal Expiry This Week The interim ceasefire agreement is set to formally lapse this week, with negotiations over ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked. Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged “unprecedented economic measures” against Iran alongside the continued naval blockade, with further announcements expected in the coming […]
Macro · Event Watch — Key Catalysts Ahead (10–14 August)
July CPI — The Next Test of Whether the Dovish Repricing Holds With September hike odds already cut from 58% to roughly 42% on the payrolls miss, this week’s CPI print becomes the swing factor for whether that repricing extends or reverses. Per an FT report, Fed Chair Warsh remains prepared to raise rates in […]
PLATINUM – $2,100 Under Test — Still Waiting for an Independent Catalyst
PLATINUM · ~$1,900–2,000/oz. Platinum has edged higher to $1,900–$2,000/oz, approaching the $2,100 psychological resistance zone. Progress remains gradual, and volatility is the lowest of the four metals at ~1.7–2.1% daily making it the most manageable from a risk perspective.
COPPER – AI Demand & China Flows Keep Copper Supported Above Breakout Zone
COPPER · ~$6.18–6.24/lb. Copper is holding at $6.18–$6.24/lb, sustaining its position above the breakout zone despite momentum moderating after the recent sharp rally. This is normal post-breakout behavior the market is digesting gains, not distributing. Bullish positioning remains intact.
SILVER – $87 Tested — Volatility Trap or Real Breakout
SILVER · ~$76–77/oz. Silver is trading around $76–$77/oz, extending to its highest level in over a year. Price action remains in a highvolatility bullish structure, with intraday swings running 2.5–3.2% wide enough to hit stop-losses even when directional bias is correct.
GOLD – Inflation Floor vs. Rate Ceiling — Gold Plays Defense
GOLD · ~$4,470–4,630/oz. Gold is currently trading around $4,470–$4,630/oz, entering a high-level consolidation phase following the hotterthan-expected April CPI print. Price action suggests the market is defending territory rather than advancing downside is limited, but upside conviction has not yet formed.