{"id":408,"date":"2026-08-18T10:48:31","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T03:48:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panasia.id\/?p=408"},"modified":"2026-08-19T14:37:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T07:37:07","slug":"macro-%c2%b7-event-watch-key-catalysts-ahead-17-21-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/market-insight\/daily-market-intelligence\/macro-%c2%b7-event-watch-key-catalysts-ahead-17-21-august\/","title":{"rendered":"Macro \u00b7 Event Watch \u2014 Key Catalysts Ahead (17\u201321 August)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>US\u2013Iran Interim Ceasefire \u2014 Formal Expiry This Week<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The interim ceasefire agreement is set to formally lapse this week, with negotiations over ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked. Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged &#8220;unprecedented economic measures&#8221; against Iran alongside the continued naval blockade, with further announcements expected in the coming days this is the single largest swing factor for oil and, by extension, gold this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#00bd78\"><strong>Bullish (gold\/oil): <\/strong>the ceasefire lapses without renewal, fresh measures escalate tensions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bearish (gold\/oil): <\/strong>a last-minute extension or breakthrough in Iran-Oman talks<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>FOMC Minutes \u2014 Wednesday, August 19<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Minutes from the July 28\u201329 meeting, which held rates steady amid a historic three-way hawkish dissent, are due this Wednesday. With the labour market data since then having shifted sharply dovish, markets will parse the minutes for how seriously the Committee weighed downside risks even before the July jobs report landed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#00bd78\"><strong>Bullish (metals):<\/strong> minutes reveal broader concern about labour-market softening<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bearish (metals):<\/strong> minutes emphasize inflation risk and validate the hawkish dissenters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Jackson Hole Symposium \u2014 Fed Chair Warsh&#8217;s Speech<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Warsh having already signalled that a rate hike may not be the preferred tool to fight energy-driven inflation, his remarks at this year&#8217;s Jackson Hole symposium are shaping up as the single most important piece of forward guidance investors will get before the September meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#00bd78\"><strong>Bullish (metals):<\/strong> Warsh reiterates caution on hiking into elevated oil prices<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bearish (metals):<\/strong> Warsh signals renewed openness to a September hike<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>China&#8217;s Refined Copper Output &amp; Codelco Guidance<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Chinese refined output on track for a second straight monthly decline and Codelco flagging its own 2026 production shortfall, confirmation or further deterioration in either data point will determine whether copper&#8217;s move into record territory has further room to run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-7 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#00bd78\"><strong>Bullish (copper):<\/strong> both supply constraints deepen further<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bearish (copper):<\/strong> Chinese smelters restore feedstock access or Codelco guidance stabilizes<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Empire State Manufacturing &amp; NAHB Housing Data<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Early-week regional and housing data will offer another read on whether the softness seen in July&#8217;s retail sales and consumer sentiment is broadening into other corners of the economy, ahead of the more consequential Fed events later in the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-9 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#00bd78\"><strong>Bullish (metals):<\/strong> data confirms broader softening, reinforcing the dovish Fed case<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-10 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bearish (metals):<\/strong> data surprises to the upside, complicating the soft-landing narrative<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-11 wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All prices are approximate and subject to market conditions. \u00b7 Pan Asia Market Intelligence \u00b7 17 August 2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US\u2013Iran Interim Ceasefire \u2014 Formal Expiry This Week The interim ceasefire agreement is set to formally lapse this week, with negotiations over ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked. Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged &#8220;unprecedented economic measures&#8221; against Iran alongside the continued naval blockade, with further announcements expected in the coming [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-market-intelligence","category-what-to-watch"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=408"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/408\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":411,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/408\/revisions\/411"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www-uat.panasia.id\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}